tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1006479003534298455.post2103331775114024217..comments2023-10-12T07:59:31.827-04:00Comments on Antiquitopia: Changing of the GuardJared Calawayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09380681998833566514noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1006479003534298455.post-59735886894248870212007-06-27T22:48:00.000-04:002007-06-27T22:48:00.000-04:00Yes, that is exactly the type of tightrope that Br...Yes, that is exactly the type of tightrope that Brown would have to walk--quietly leave Iraq while not directly criticizing the war, which clearly is very unpopular in Britain, as you say. <BR/><BR/>I do wonder, though, how Blair's new appointment as the senior peace envoy to the middle east would fit into this or any new UK strategy in the region. Of course, his appointment comes not from Britian but from the "quartet" and his brief is for building up a framework for the Palestinian state. But he is a much higher profile figure than his predecessor in this role, and would, perhaps, draw more attention to the British presence or non-presence in the Middle East. On the other hand, it might represent a refocussing, shifting the emphasis from a military occupation of Iraq to a diplomatic intervention in Palestine.Jared Calawayhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09380681998833566514noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1006479003534298455.post-60166571215957035802007-06-27T22:03:00.000-04:002007-06-27T22:03:00.000-04:00I've seen speculation by Juan Cole among others th...I've seen speculation by Juan Cole among others that Brown--or indeed whoever had turned out to replace Blair--will initiate a de facto change in Iraq policy. Labour needs to get out of Iraq before the next election. The war is simply too unpopular. <BR/><BR/>What could be seen is that Brown will declare that the Basra region, which is occupied by British troops, has been stabilized and that it can be turned over to local forces. Then, patting themselves on the back for a job well done, the British will leave Iraq. <BR/><BR/>This will be a problem for the US forces since southern Iraq is not, in fact, stable (except perhaps in comparison to northern Iraq or if by stable you mean completely dominated by militias who are not fighting against each other), and a British withdrawal will threaten US supply lines, since Basra connects the rest of the country to the sea. An expansion of the US occupation to the south would then be likely.<BR/><BR/>At any rate, Brown can "continue" the policies of the Blair government while changing them completely. It only requires a little duplicity. <BR/><BR/>My prediction, then, is that Britain will withdraw from Iraq without taking a stand against the war.Jameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13204688519029277334noreply@blogger.com